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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro. PENALTY on BAL-34-A.Collins, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at BAL 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model