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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Matthews (25-A.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.69 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP