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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 12-M.Campanaro INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Hilton (50-R.Shazier) at PIT 32. 31-M.Hilton to BAL 49 for 19 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP