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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to BAL 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP