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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(12:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 32. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 32 for no gain (55-A.Moats). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model