Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 9

(3:28) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model