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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model