4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 39

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine Sr..

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model