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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 30 for 6 yards (88-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model