Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

(4:19) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NO 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at NO 39 for 9 yards (92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model