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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to MIA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 26 for 9 yards (33-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model