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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to MIA 16 for 1 yard (96-V.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model