Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Landry to MIA 32 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on MIA-27-M.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model