Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(3:01) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.25 EP
76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model