Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to MIA 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-16-B.Coleman, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model