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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 29
Dallas Cowboys 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3
What Actually Happened
(1:44) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 25 for 4 yards (26-M.Barron).
The Three Options
GO
+2.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.39 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK
+1.46 EP
- 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
