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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 32 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model