4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model