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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP