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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model