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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model