Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 91

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(2:00) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to MIN 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for no gain (10-J.Abbrederis).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.36 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model