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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen. Penalty on MIN-65-P.Elflein, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP