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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model