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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 62

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 19 for 2 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model