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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to DET 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP