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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model