Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for 9 yards (53-J.Schobert). PENALTY on CIN-26-J.Shaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.37 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model