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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 10 at the 36
Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31
What Actually Happened
(12:16) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle [58-C.Lawson].
The Three Options
GO
-0.22 EP
What Happened
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.32 EP
- 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
KICK
+0.01 EP
Model's Pick
- 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
