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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for 14 yards (40-D.Vitale). CLE-54-D.Alexander was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model