Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

(4:33) 8-J.Vogel punts 62 yards to CHI 15, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.93 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model