Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 51
Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 35
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 24-Jo.Howard right guard to GB 48 for 3 yards (42-M.Burnett).
The Three Options
GO
-0.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.62 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.26 EP
KICK
-1.30 EP
- 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
- 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT
-0.95 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.95 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
