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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 35 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 8-J.Vogel punts 29 yards to CHI 40, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -2.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP