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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 18

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 14-D.Thompson to GB 9 for 9 yards (28-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP