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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 33

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at CHI 28 for 5 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model