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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 29

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 4-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model