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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to CHI 30, Center-59-T.Pepper. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 28 for -2 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model