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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 52 yards to CHI 25, Center-59-T.Pepper. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 9 yards (22-A.Ripkowski, 25-M.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model