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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 72

New England Patriots 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 12 yards (46-J.Develin).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model