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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.99 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP