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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 23 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model