Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 30 – New England Patriots 23

(7:34) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to CAR 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model