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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 38

New England Patriots 16 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to CAR 25 for 13 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model