4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 23

New England Patriots 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.80 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP