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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 95

Buffalo Bills 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (14-J.Webb; 29-R.Blanton).

The Three Options

GO -3.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 95, worth -5.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model