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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-N.Williams to ATL 39 for 8 yards (20-S.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -1.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model