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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model