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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 6

Buffalo Bills 14 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model