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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to BUF 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model