Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to ATL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-20-S.Neasman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model